Denmark’s Saxo Bank has released a set of 10 “outrageous predictions” for next year, among others forecasting that digital rights platforms based on non fungible tokens (NFTs) have the potential to disrupt Spotify’s robust position in the global music distribution industry.
The bank explains in a statement that its predictions focus on various unlikely but underappreciated events which, should they occur, could send shockwaves across the world’s financial markets.
“Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95 percent of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues,” the Danish bank said.
The Danish bank argues that, while the early days of NFTs could be considered “as chaotic and dangerous for asset buyers, the outlook is bright” for the technology.
“Not only does an NFT-based platform offer a new way to verify the ownership of rights, but also a way to distribute rights without intermediaries, i.e., a completely decentralised system obviating the need for a centralised platform,” according to Saxo Bank.
As many musicians feel they are not fairly treated by the revenue sharing models of the existing streaming platforms, this could strengthen the use case for NFT-based platforms, the forecast says.
In Saxo Bank’s scenario, next year, an NFT-based service is launched and starts to offer music from notable stars, such as the likes of Katy Perry, The Chainsmokers, and Jason Derulo. Other well-known artists follow in the stars’ footsteps, withdrawing their music from “traditional” streaming platforms.
As a result, investors start perceiving Spotify’s future as bleak, and send the platform’s shares down 33% in 2022, according to the forecast.
But this is only one of their “outrageous” predictions. Others are:
- The attempt by Facebook‘s parent Meta to reel back in the youth with the Metaverse stumbles, as this group continues to abandon its platforms in protest at the mining of personal information for profit;
- Women Traders’ Reddit Army launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies;
- The EU launches a USD 3trn Superfund for climate, energy and defence to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes;
- The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check: policymakers support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation;
- US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral;
- The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis;
- India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member;
- New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war – a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind;
- Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years, “prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions.”
Saxo Bank says it provides its services to some 810,000 clients across the world, holding more than USD 80bn in client assets.